亚行预计尼泊尔本财年的GDP增长率为3.1%。

2021年06月25日 15:07  点击:[]

亚行预计尼泊尔本财年的GDP增长率为3.1%。

2021年4月28日刊于:《共和国报》

加德满都,428日讯:亚洲开发银行(ADB)预测,尼泊尔本财政年度的经济增长率将达到3.1%,而这一数据高于其他类似国际机构的预测。亚洲开发银行(ADB)周三发布《2021年亚洲发展展望》(Asian Development Outlook 2021),该国际贷款机构表示,亚洲经济增长有望在2020年实现稳步复苏。在上一个财政年度,尼泊尔经济收缩了1.9%。


早些时候,世界银行曾预测尼泊尔今年的经济增长率将达到2.7%,国际货币基金组织也预估其增长率为2.9%。亚洲开发银行将这一增长归功于新冠疫苗接种活动。同时,该机构也警告说,如果发生第二波感染可能会使该国的国内生产总值(GDP)的增长低于预期。


亚行尼泊尔主管官员沙拉德·班达里说:“如果在本财政年度剩余的时间里,为应对第二波感染采取严格防疫措施,那么国内生产总值增长将低于预测水平。”亚行还表示尼泊尔农业、建筑业以及微型、小型和中型企业方面有望实现复苏。此外,良好的季风气候和种植面积的增加,尼泊尔水稻产量可能增加1.3%,因此2021财政年度的农业收入预计将增加2.4%。


同样,受疫情影响的行业,包括微型、小型和中型企业,一直在以优惠贷款和现有贷款再融资的形式获得经济援助,以减轻经济下滑的不利影响。亚行在报告中表示:建筑业已经开始回转,而政府正在实行一些重大项目,完成之后也将促进经济复苏。


在粮食丰收、供应链通畅和非食品价格受到抑制的大好局势下,预计2021年的通胀率将从2020年的6.2%缓和到平均5%。除了日益严重的新冠疫情威胁外,亚行还强调政治动荡和政策不一致以及洪水和山体滑坡等频发自然灾害也可能破坏此前经济增长的良好前景。该官员还表示:“区域和全球复苏低于预期,将减少尼泊尔工人在国外就业机会,进而限制汇款和出口收入,抑制尼泊尔的经济增长。”


亚开行还预测,鉴于新冠疫苗接种工作持续取得进展,区域和全球经济也从疫情中复苏,良好的季风气候带来更好的收成,再加上工人汇款的稳定流入,尼泊尔2021至2022年的GDP增长率将保持在5.1%。


Translated by Qi Zhouqian

Verified by Sun Dali

KATHMANDU, April 28: The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has projected that Nepal’s economic growth rate will stand at 3.1 percent in the current fiscal year, which is higher than the ones forecast by similar other international institutions. Unveiling the Asian Development Outlook 2021, the flagship economic publication of the ADB, on Wednesday, the international lending institution said the growth is expected to recover from the low base in 2020. The Nepali economy contracted by 1.9 percent in the last fiscal year.


Earlier, the World Bank had projected that Nepal will gain an economic growth rate of 2.7 percent this year. Similarly, the International Monetary Fund has estimated the growth rate to stand at 2.9 percent. The ADB has attributed the bounce back to the ongoing vaccination drive against the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it has cautioned that the second wave of infection could take down the growth of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) than the one projected.


“If strict containment measures that have been initiated to tackle this second wave of infections are necessary for a prolonged period in the remainder of this fiscal year, then GDP growth will be lower than the forecast,” said ADB Officer-in-Charge for Nepal, Sharad Bhandari. The ADB has also maintained high hope that Nepal will get notable recovery in agriculture, construction and micro, small and medium enterprises. Agriculture is expected to rise by 2.4 percent in FY2021 as paddy yield is likely to increase by 1.3 percent, owing to a good monsoon and increased acreage under production, the ADB says.


Similarly, the affected industries, including micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises, have been receiving economic support in the form of concessional lending and refinancing of the existing loans to mitigate the adverse effects of the downturn. “Construction has begun to pick up, while the completion of some major projects of the government is expected to boost economic recovery,” reads the ADB report.


The inflation is expected to moderate to an average of five percent in 2021, down from 6.2 percent in 2020, on the back of a good harvest, smoother supply chains, and subdued non-food prices. Apart from an increasing threat of the coronavirus, the ADB has underscored the role of political uncertainties and policy inconsistencies and recurrent natural calamities like floods and landslides that could also undermine growth prospects. “A weaker than expected regional and global recovery would limit employment opportunities abroad for Nepali workers, which will constrain remittance and earnings from exports, and dampen Nepal’s growth.”


The ADB has also projected Nepal’s GDP growth in 2021/22 to remain at 5.1 percent, given continuation of vaccination progress against the COVID-19, regional and global economic recovery from this pandemic, assumption of a good monsoon leading to better harvest, and steady inflows of workers’ remittance.


Original Link:  https://myrepublica.nagariknetwork.com/news/adb-projects-nepal-s-gdp-growth-rate-at-3-1-percent-this-fiscal-year/


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